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Lenny Del Genio – NBA Playoff Betting Update

05/03/2011

If NBA bettors were expecting favorites to turn things around in the 2nd Round of the NBA Playoffs, then they are still waiting following the conclusion of a quartet of Game One’s.

Not only did three underdogs cash in the four Game One’s, but they all won outright. The only Game 1 favorite to cover the pointspread was the Miami Heat, who all of a sudden look like the best team in basketball. After all this, could the Heat actually win the NBA Finals?

Underdogs went 26-16-1 ATS in the first round of the playoffs. There were no first round series where the favorite showed a profit, although three of the eight saw an even 3-3 ATS split. Those series were: Memphis/San Antonio (surprising considering an 8 seed beat a 1 seed in 6 games), Dallas/Portland and LA Lakers/New Orleans. Note that’s including the Spurs/Grizzlies Game 5 as a ½ point cover for San Antonio.

So, after 47 total playoff games, underdogs are now 29-17-1 ATS, which is pretty dominant. Just about all of the betting lines for Game 2 of the four respective series are similar to what we saw in Game 1, so the question now is this the time to change course with your NBA picks?

Under bettors really cleaned up in the first round of the playoffs as well, particularly the second weekend where all eight games went Under the total. Mirroring the underdogs’ record, Under bettors went 26-17 in Round 1 with only the Memphis/San Antonio series seeing more Overs (four) cash than Unders (two).

Again, it was the Atlanta/Orlando series that was the real outlier here. In five of the six games, the Under cashed. Underdogs were also 5-1 ATS in that series.

It appears as if the tide may be turning here, however. All four second round Game 1’s went Over the total and Game 2’s have a history of going Over. As a matter of fact, all Playoff Game 2’s, and we’re talking any round, have gone Over 59% of the time the last five years.

Why is no one talking about the fact that the Dallas Mavericks have now covered 11 straight games?

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NFL Playoff Blog – Lenny Del Genio

01/05/2011

New Orleans (-10.5) at Seattle (45): The Seahawks are the largest home dog in NFL Playoff history and probably deservingly so as they were the first team to ever qualify for the postseason with a losing record. Furthermore, their nine losses came by an average of three touchdowns. One of those came to the defending Super Bowl Champion Saints, 34-19, as 11-point road dogs on November 21st. Seattle is 0-10 ATS off a home win and went 11-4-1 Over this season.

NY Jets (44.5) at Indianapolis (-2.5): Rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game with the line five points lower and the total 4.5 points greater. The Jets were an interesting road team this year, 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS. They also went Over in all eight road games and are 6-0 Over as an underdog this season. The Colts ended the regular season on a four-game winning streak.

Baltimore (-3) at Kansas City (41): Ravens are the far more battle tested team when it comes to the NFL playoffs. This is their third straight year in the postseason under the Harbaugh/Flacco regime while Kansas City has not won a home playoff game since ’93. They did go 7-1 SU at Arrowhead this season, but that loss came in the finale to Oakland.

Green Bay (46.5) at Philadelphia (-2.5): This game should be great. Packers qualified on the final day of the season by beating the Bears 10-3 at home in the season finale. The Eagles lost their final two regular season games after wrapping up the NFC East by stunning the Giants in perhaps the year’s most memorable game. Green Bay won on this field in Week 1, but Kevin Kolb started at QB for Philadelphia in that game and prior to that the Packers had lost nine straight times in the City of Brotherly Love.

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NFL Wk 17 Blog – Lenny Del Genio

12/31/2010

Here’s what you need to know for Sunday’s NFL games with a playoff implications.

Tennessee (48) at Indianapolis (-9.5): The Colts win the AFC South (yet again) with a win here or a Jacksonville loss to Houston at 4:15 ET. They have won six of the last seven at home vs. Tennessee, who is simply playing out the string. The Titans have just one win since 10.24 and are 3-12-1 ATS vs. winning teams.

Jacksonville (46) at Houston (-3): Jags must win and have Indy lose. That’s unlikely and QB Garrard isn’t going to play. Texans have revenge for that hail mary fiasco earlier in the season. Houston has been a disaster this year, going 0-4 ATS L4, but is 11-1 ATS at home playing with revenge for a loss where they allowed 28 or more points.


Pittsburgh (-5.5) at Cleveland (37.5): Steelers win the AFC North and get a first round bye with a win or a Ravens loss. Cleveland has lost 13 of 14 in this rivalry, but did upset Pittsburgh here at home 13-6 LY. Browns are 1-6 ATS their last seven games and Eric Mangini could be coaching for his job.

Cincinnati (43.5) at Baltimore (-9.5): Ravens need a win & a Steelers loss to take the AFC North and first round playoff bye. After a nine-game losing streak, Cincy has won and covered two straight. Baltimore has won and covered three straight & is 12-2 ATS vs. teams with a losing record.

NY Giants (-4) at Washington (6-9): Giants need a win and a Packers loss to make the playoffs as a Wild Card. They are 5-0 SU/ATS last five meetings with the Redskins, including a 31-7 win four weeks ago. The New York defense has been awful over the last six quarters and Washington is 2-0 ATS with QB Grossman as the starter.

Chicago (41.5) at Green Bay (-10): It all sets up for the Packers here. The Bears have clinched a bye and do not need to win here, although HC Smith has vowed to play the starters. Green Bay must win to make the playoffs or have the Giants lose. They have major revenge for a MNF loss in Week 3.

Carolina (41) at Atlanta (-14): The Falcons simply need to win here to gain home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs. They are off their first home loss of the season, on a short week no less, but Carolina is tough to back at 0-6 ATS off a road loss.

Tampa Bay (46.5) at New Orleans (-7.5): Bucs need a win and a miracle to make the playoffs. Still, a 10-win season would have been unfathomable before the season (except for us who predicted nine!). Tampa is 6-0 ATS as a road dog this year. Saints won the first meeting 31-6.

St. Louis (-3) at Seattle (41.5): Winner here takes the whole enchilada. Of course, the NFC West isn’t much of an enchilada. We are playing this game, so be sure to pick up the winner!

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NFL Week 16 Blog – Lenny Del Genio

12/23/2010

Here is all the info you need to know for the key NFL Week 16 games.

San Francisco (39) at St. Louis (-3): Only in the moribund NFC West could a late season matchup between a 5-9 and 6-8 team be considered critical. The public clearly favors the Rams here (lined opened at -1), but the trends clearly favor the Niners as they are 24-11 ATS vs. St. Louis (including 12-4 ATS on the road) and 6-0 ATS this season off an ATS loss.


NY Jets (36.5) at Chicago (-1): Not surprised to see the Bears favored by so little at home over the Jets here. Chicago is the only team in the league to have clinched a division title & is still looking for a first round bye. The Jets clinch a playoff spot with a win. New York is 6-1 SU on the road this year.

Indianapolis (-3) at Oakland (47): The Raiders have an astounding 668 yards rushing the last three weeks. The Colts are not good at stopping the run. Only problem is that Oakland is 0-5 SU vs. non-division AFC foes TY and the Colts need to keep winning to preserve an AFC South division title.

NY Giants (43) at Green Bay (-3): This is a de facto playoff game with the winner having a great shot at gaining the NFC’s final Wild Card berth. A loss would eliminate the Packers from playoff contention. QB Aaron Rodgers is back after missing last week’s loss to New England with a concussion. The Giants are off one of the worst losses of the entire NFL season, blowing a 31-10 fourth quarter lead to the division rival Eagles.

New Orleans (48.5) at Atlanta (-2.5): Huge game in the NFC South on Monday Night. The Falcons can earn the NFC’s top seed with a win here. Pretty short number here considering Atlanta’s 19-1 SU mark at home with Matt Ryan at QB. They have averaged 28.2 PPG in their six wins this season. New Orleans is off a loss at Baltimore last week.


Lenny has a HUGE NFL card on tap this week!

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Lenny Del Genio – NFL Week 15 Blog

12/17/2010

NFL Week 15 Blog
by Lenny Del Genio

Here is what you need to know for the marquee games on the Week 15 NFL card:

Kansas City (43.5) at St. Louis (pk): Battle of division leaders. Chiefs QB Cassel is listed as probable and the team desperately needs him considering backup Croyle’s 0-10 SU career mark. Also, KC is 1-4 SU last five road games and the Rams are 4-1 SU/ATS L5 at home.

Jacksonville (48.5) at Indianapolis (-4.5): This is a huge game in the AFC South. If the Jags pull the upset, they will have swept the season series from the Colts and essentially wrap up the division. Each of the prior six meetings between these teams have been decided by a TD or less.

Philadelphia (46) at NY Giants (-3): These teams are tied for first place in the NFC East. The Eagles have beaten the Giants five straight times (5-0 ATS), including 27-17 last month on a Sunday Night. New York led that game in the fourth quarter, but turned it over for a fifth time.

New Orleans (43.5) at Baltimore (-1): The money has come in on the dog after the public watched the Ravens allow the Texans two 90+ yd drives in the fourth quarter Monday night. Saints have won six straight overall and are 10-2 ATS L12 vs. the AFC.

Atlanta (-6) at Seattle: The Falcons are one of three teams this week to be playing the third of three consecutive road games. Potential lookahead with division rival New Orleans on deck, but Seattle has looked very bad of late and is just 5-14 ATS as an underdog the last two seasons.

NY Jets (35.5) at Pittsburgh (-6): Has there ever been a 9-4 team viewed as poorly as these Jets are? They have scored just nine points the last two weeks and now face a Steelers D that is allowing 9 PPG its last four games. Pittsburgh has gone 0-3 ATS vs. the AFC East thus far.

Former linesmaker Lenny Del Genio’s 20* NFL Game of the Month goes this Sunday.

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NFL Week 10 Blog – Lenny Del Genio

11/12/2010

Here are some key betting angles for some of Sunday’s games.

Cincinnati (47) at Indianapolis (-7): The Bengals are on a 0-5 SU/ATS run, allowing opponents to score an average of 27 PPG. They are on a 1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS last eight road games overall, so this probably is not a good spot against a Colts team that has won 18 of 19 at home (3-0 SU/ATS TY w/ avg MOV of 15.7 PPG).

Tennessee (-2) at Miami (43): Dolphins are 0-3 SU/ATS at home this year and have made a switch at QB from Chad Henne to Chad Pennington. This is the debut of WR Randy Moss with the Titans. Road teams are 7-1 SU/ATS in Miami games this year & the Fish are 6-20 ATS L26 home games.

Detroit (44) at Buffalo (-3): For the winless Bills, this looks like the best shot for a SU win as they are favored for the second time all season. They have now lost three straight games by a field goal. Detroit does not have QB Stafford, but is a league best 7-1 ATS this year, beating the spread by 60 pts in the L5 games.

Carolina (37) at Tampa Bay (-7): The Panthers are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS last seven visits to Raymond James Stadium, and the Bucs have been outscored 100-54 in four home games thus far. However, Carolina is on pace to be one of the lowest scoring teams in NFL single season history.

Kansas City (-1) at Denver (43): The Broncos are just 2-13 ATS at home vs. AFC teams, including 0-7 ATS vs. division opponents. However, they are also 12-1 ATS when playing with rest. The Chiefs are off a tough loss to the Raiders.

St. Louis (38) at San Francisco (-6): The Rams have lost 15 of 16 road games. San Francisco has gone Under six straight times vs. division opponents.

Seattle (41.5) at Arizona (-3): The Cardinals are -7 in turnovers, the Seahawks are -1000 in total yardage compared to their opponents. Arizona is 4-0 SU/ATS last four times hosting Seattle.

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NFL Week 9 Blog – Lenny Del Genio

11/03/2010

Chicago (-3) at Buffalo (40): This game will be held in Toronto, an annual excursion by the Bills, who are 0-3 ATS in true home games this season + off back to back OT losses on the road. Chicago has lost two straight games at home and is off its bye week. Bears won the previous meeting 40-7, in 2006.

San Diego (-3) at Houston (51): Two of the NFL’s biggest underachievers meet in Houston this week with the 4-3 Texans off a Monday Night loss to Indianapolis and 3-5 San Diego still looking for its first road win. The Chargers are 0-4 SU/ATS away from home this year despite a +195 edge in total yards in those games. Texans are 0-3 SU/ATS all-time vs. the Lightning Bolts.

New Orleans (-6.5) at Carolina (41): The oddsmakers were a bit slow in posting a number on this NFC matchup due to the questionable status of various running backs on both sides. These are two of the worst pointspread teams in the league with the Saints 2-5-1 ATS and the Panthers 2-5 ATS. Carolina did cover as 12.5-pt dogs in New Orleans five weeks ago in a 16-14 defeat.

Arizona (41) at Minnesota (-9): The Vikings are a mess with QB Favre hobbled, WR Moss cut and HC Childress incompetent. Sadly, the Cardinals may be in worse shape as they are 0-3 SU/ATS on the road this year, getting outscored 104-27. They have no QB with both Derek Anderson and Max Hall completely ineffective. Minnesota is 11-1 SU L12 home games, including 7-1 ATS run.

Tampa Bay (44.5) at Atlanta (-8): This game will decide first place in the NFC South as both come in at 5-2 SU. The Bucs five wins have come against Cleveland, Carolina, Cincinnati, St. Louis and Arizona. They have proven to be road warriors, however, as they are 6-1 L7 ATS on the road, including four straight outright wins. Last four meetings have all gone Under the total.

NY Jets (-4) at Detroit (41.5): The Jets were the first team to be shutout in a game this season as they came out flat off the bye week and lost 9-0 to the Packers last week. Detroit has been a huge money maker this season, going 6-1 ATS with the lone non-cover coming by a single point.

Miami (40) at Baltimore (-5): The Dolphins have an incredible road/home dichotomy going this year, but not what you’d expect. Through seven games, they are 4-0 SU/ATS on the road and 0-3 SU/ATS at home. Long-term, they are on an 11-3 ATS run as a road dog. The Ravens are off a bye week and have crushed Miami each of the prior two meetings.

New England (-4.5) at Cleveland (43.5): Don’t look now, but the Pats are the only one-loss team remaining in the league. Browns HC Mangini was 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS vs. former teacher Belichick and New England during his Jets tenure. Browns are off a bye and on a 10-4 ATS run dating back to last season following a stunning upset (+13) of New Orleans two weeks ago.

NY Giants (-6.5) at Seattle (41): This smells like a trap game for the Giants. The Seahawks are 3-0 SU/ATS at home (10-3 ATS L13), but off a terrible 33-3 loss to the Raiders. New York is off a bye and has won its last four games despite 11 turnovers over that span. The Giants D has knocked five different quarterbacks out of the game this year.

Kansas City (40.5) at Oakland (-2.5): Who had this game as the battle of the top two AFC West teams come Week 10. The Raiders are at .500 in November for the first time since 2002, when they went to the Super Bowl. They have outscored their last two opponents by a stunning 92-17 margin. The Chiefs are on a 7-2 ATS run in road games. Last four meetings have gone Under with an average total points of just 28.8.

Indianapolis (46.5) at Philadelphia (-3): Mike Vick is back at QB for the Eagles against a Colts team working on a short week. Philly is off the bye week and 17-5 ATS when playing with rest, which predates the HC Reid era. Something has to give here as the Eagles are 2-5 ATS L7 home games, but Indy is 1-3 ATS on the road this year.

Dallas (45.5) at Green Bay (-8): The Cowboys could be the worst team in football and are definitely its least profitable (1-6 ATS). Ten of the previous 13 meetings between the teams have gone Over and Dallas has gone Over in its last four games overall. The Packers have seemingly righted the ship with wins over the Vikings and Jets the last two weeks.

Pittsburgh (-4.5) at Cincinnati (41.5): The Bengals are in free fall with an 0-4 SU/ATS mark last four games, so if a Monday Night home game against the division rival Steelers can’t inspire them, then nothing will. Pittsburgh is on a 14-5 ATS run in Cincinnati, but lost both games to the Bengals last year.

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NFL Week 7 Blog by Lenny Del Genio

10/22/2010

Pittsburgh (-3) at Miami (40.5): The Dolphins are an unusual 3-0 SU/ATS on the road, but 0-2 SU/ATS at home this season. Going back to last year, they have lost four in a row SU and ATS at home. The Steelers are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS the last four meetings with Miami, including a 30-24 win last year that featured three interceptions. Pittsburgh has won and covered both road games thus far.

Cincinnati (42.5) at Atlanta (-3.5): The Bengals are much more comfortable in the role of underdog, posting a 10-3 ATS record while winning nine of those games outright. However, the Falcons are a perfect 6-0 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss.

Philadelphia (42.5) at Tennessee (-3): The Titans have absolutely dominated the NFC foes, covering 35 of 50 games and winning 11 in a row SU. They are also on a 17-5 ATS run when laying three or less at home.

Cleveland (43.5) at New Orleans (-13): Something has to give here as the Saints are just 1-9 ATS when laying double digits, but 9-0 ATS vs. AFC teams. Cleveland has gone Under 10 straight times vs. NFC South foes.

Buffalo (40) at Baltimore (-13): The underdog is on a 5-0 ATS run in Ravens pre-bye week games. However, Baltimore typically cleans up against teams with a losing record, going 9-1 ATS the last two seasons.

St. Louis (38) at Tampa Bay (-3): Rams have been outscored 128-37 in their last four road games while the Bucs are 2-9 SU/ATS their last 11 home games.

Oakland (41) at Denver (-8.5): The Raiders have covered four straight times in Denver, including pulling off the upset win each of the last two years.

Minnesota (44.5) at Green Bay (-3): Packers have lost four in a row ATS. They are also 5-1 Under this season. Minnesota swept last year and each of the last four meetings have gone Over.

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NFL Week 4 Blog – Lenny Del Genio

09/30/2010

Denver (42.5) at Tennessee (-6.5): The Titans surrendered 471 total yards of offense in a 29-10 win over the Giants last week. Denver, meanwhile, gained 519 yards total offense in a 27-13 loss to the Colts. Note that the Broncos are 12-2 ATS the week after gaining 500+ total yards.

Cincinnati (-3) at Cleveland (37): Are the Browns due for a win or just due to get blown out? Cleveland’s three losses this season have come by a combined 12 points. Cincinnati was 0-8 ATS when favored last season, but did cover in that role last week.

Detroit (46) at Green Bay (-14): Lions have lost 19 straight times at Lambeau Field (4-13-2 ATS). Packers are off a MNF road loss to the Bears where they outgained the Bears 379-276.

Carolina (44) at New Orleans (-13.5): The Panthers look like the worst team in the NFL right now. They are on a 4-0 ATS run vs. the Saints. Nine of the last eleven meetings have gone Under the total.

Seattle (-1.5) at St. Louis (40): Seattle is on a 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS run at St. Louis. Both teams won last week. Something has to give as the Seahawks are 0-7 ATS off a home win and the Rams are 2-11 ATS in division games.

Indianapolis (-7.5) at Jacksonville (46): Colts are 8-2 SU, but just 4-5-1 ATS last ten meetings with the Jags. Jacksonville is just 4-14 ATS in home games.

Houston (-3) at Oakland (43): The Raiders should probably be 2-1, but are 4-14 ATS as home dogs of three points or less.

Arizona (46) at San Diego (-9): Chargers outgained Seattle +247 LW and still lost. Take out last week’s special teams TD and the Cards are averaging less than 14 PPG.

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Lenny Del Genio – Week 3 NFL Blog

09/23/2010

Tennessee (42.5) at NY Giants (-3): Titans are 4-0 SU all-time vs. the Giants since moving to Tennessee. In fact, the franchise is 33-15 ATS its last 48 non-conference games. Both teams won and covered in Week 1 only to suffer bad losses in Week 2.

Cleveland (37) at Baltimore (-10.5): Ravens have won and covered four straight in this AFC North rivalry. They have also covered six straight as double-digit chalk. However, there is a great system on the Browns here that says to play against DD home favorites, off a SU loss as chalk. The system is 42-14 ATS since 1983.

Detroit (42.5) at Minnesota (-12): The NFL is guaranteed at least one 0-3 team as this is the only battle of winless teams on the Week 3 slate. The Vikings are on 9-1 SU, 6-2-2 ATS run in this NFC North rivalry. The same system from the Browns game is active on the Lions here.

Dallas (47) at Houston (-3): Can the Cowboys really fall to 0-3? This, to us, is the most intriguing game on the card. Dallas is just 4-8 ATS L12 vs. AFC teams. LW Houston beat a Redskins team that beat the Cowboys. The Texans have never started a season 3-0.

Washington (-3.5) at St. Louis (39): Rams have covered three straight vs. the Redskins, including covers as DD dogs each of the last two seasons. They have also lost 14 straight home games! Washington has only 106 yards rushing in two games and this is their first road game.

Philadelphia (-3) at Jacksonville (44.5): Vick gets the start over Kolb for Philly. Jags have covered just four of their last 17 home games.

Indianapolis (-5.5) at Denver (48): Tough spot for a Broncos team still dealing with the apparent suicide of teammate Kenny McKinley. Colts are 7-2 SU/ATS last nine meetings. Both teams lost in Week 1, but rebounded with wins and covers last week.

San Diego (-5.5) at Seattle (44): Seahawks are 6-5 SU and 8-3 ATS L11 home games. Chargers QB Rivers is 11-5 SU vs. the NFC, winning five straight, three of them coming on the road.

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